Soludo stated in a piece titled “Buhari vs Jonathan: Beyond The
Election” that none of the two candidates would be able to deliver on
the ‘fantastic promises being made on the economy.’
The former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Charles Soludo has spoken out on the upcoming General Elections.
Soludo
stated in a piece titled “Buhari vs Jonathan: Beyond The Election” that
none of the two candidates would be able to deliver on the ‘fantastic
promises being made on the economy.’
Read the full article below:
I
need to preface this article with a few clarifications. I have taken a
long sabbatical leave from partisan politics, and it is real fun
watching the drama from the balcony. Having had my own share of public
service (I do not need a job from government), I now devote my time and
energy in pursuit of other passions, especially abroad. A few days ago, I
read an article in Thisday entitled “Where is Charles Soludo?”, and my
answer is that I am still there, only that I have been too busy with
extensive international travels to participate in or comment on our
national politics and economy.
But I occasionally
follow events at home. Since the survival and prosperity of Nigeria are
at stake, the least some of us (albeit, non-partisan) must do is to
engage in public debate. As the elections approach, I owe a duty to
share some of my concerns.
In September 2010, I
wrote a piece entitled “2011 Elections: Let the Real Debate Begin” and
published by Thisday. I understand the Federal Executive Council
discussed it, and the Minister of Information rained personal attacks on
me during the press briefing. I noted more than six newspaper
editorials in support of the issues we raised. Beside other issues we
raised, our main thesis was that the macro economy was dangerously
adrift, with little self-insurance mechanisms (and a prediction that if
oil prices fell below $40, many state governments would not be able to
pay salaries).
I gave a subtle hint at easy money
and exchange rate depreciations because I did not want to panic the
market with a strong statement. Sadly, on the eve of the next elections,
literally everything we hinted at has happened. Part of my motivation
for this article is that five years after, the real debate is still not
happening.
The presidential election next month
will be won by either Buhari or Jonathan. For either, it is likely to be
a pyrrhic victory. None of them will be able to deliver on the
fantastic promises being made on the economy, and if oil prices remain
below $60, I see very difficult months ahead, with possible heady
collisions with labour, civil society, and indeed the citizenry. To be
sure, the presidential election will not be decided by the quality of
‘issues’ or promises canvassed by the candidates.
The
debates won’t also change much (except if there is a major gaffe by
either candidate like Tofa did in the debate with Abiola). My take is
that more than 95% of the likely voters have pretty much made up their
minds based largely on other considerations. A few of us remain
undecided. During my brief visit to Nigeria, I watched some of the
campaign rallies on television.
The tragedy of
the current electioneering campaigns is that both parties are missing
the golden opportunity to sensitize the citizenry about the enormous
challenges ahead and hence mobilize them for the inevitable sacrifices
they would be called upon to make soon. Each is promising an El-Dorado.
Let
me admit that the two main parties talk around the major development
challenges—corruption, insecurity, economy (unemployment/poverty, power,
infrastructure, etc) health, education, etc. However, it is my
considered view that none of them has any credible agenda to deal with
the issues, especially within the context of the evolving global economy
and Nigeria’s broken public finance.
The UK
Conservative Party’s manifesto for the last election proudly announced
that all its programmes were fully costed and were therefore
implementable. Neither APC nor PDP can make a similar claim. A plan
without the dollar or Naira signs to it is nothing but a wish-list. They
are not telling us how much each of their promises will cost and where
they will get the money. None talks about the broken or near bankrupt
public finance and the strategy to fix it.
In
response to the question of where the money will come from, I heard one
of the politicians say that the problem of Nigeria was not money but the
management of resources. This is half-truth. The problem is both. No
matter how efficient a father (with a monthly salary of N50,000) is at
managing the family resources, I cannot see how he could deliver on a
promise to buy a brand new Peugeot 406 for each of his three children in
a year. Even with all the loopholes and waste closed, with increased
efficiency per dollar spent, there is still a binding budget constraint.
To deliver an efficient national transport infrastructure alone will
still cost tens of billions of dollars per annum even by
corruption-free, cost-effective means.
Did I hear
that APC promises a welfare system that will pay between N5,000 and
N10,000 per month to the poorest 25 million Nigerians? Just this
programme alone will cost between N1.5 and N3 trillion per annum. Add to
this the cost of free primary education plus free meal (to be funded by
the federal budget or would it force non-APC state governments to
implement the same?), plus some millions of public housing, etc.
I
have tried to cost some of the promises by both the APC and the PDP,
given alternative scenarios for public finance and the numbers don’t add
up. Nigerians would be glad to know how both parties would fund their
programmes.
Do they intend to accentuate the huge
public debt, or raise taxes on the soon to-be-beleaguered private
businesses, or massively devalue the naira to rake in baskets of naira
from the dwindling oil revenue, or embark on huge fiscal retrenchment
with the sack of labour and abandonment of projects, and which areas of
waste do they intend to close and how much do they estimate to rake in
from them, etc?
I remember that Chief Obafemi
Awolowo was asked similar questions in 1978 and 1979 about his promises
of free education and free medical services. Even as a teenager, I was
impressed by how he reeled out figures about the amounts he would save
from various ‘waste’ including the tea/coffee served in government
offices. The point is that at least he did his homework and had his
numbers and I give credit to his team.
Some 36
years later, the quality of political debate and discourse seems to
border on the pedestrian. From the quality of its team, I did not expect
much from the current government, but I must confess that I expected
APC as a party aspiring to take over from PDP to come up with a
knock-out punch. Evidently, from what we have read from the various
versions of its manifesto as well as the depth of promises being made,
it does not seem that it has a better offer.
Let
me digress a bit to refresh our memory on where we are, and thus provide
the context in which to evaluate the promises being made to us. Recall
that the key word of the 2015 budget is ‘austerity’. Austerity? This is
just within a few months of the fall in oil prices.
History
repeats itself in a very cruel way, as this was exactly what happened
under the Shehu Shagari administration. Under the Shagari government,
oil price reached its highest in 1980/81. During the same period,
Nigeria ratcheted up its consumption and all tiers of government were in
competition as to which would out-borrow the other.
Huge
public debt was the consequence. When oil prices crashed in early 1982,
the National Assembly then passed the Economic Stabilization (Austerity
Measures) Act in one day--- going through the first, second, and third
readings the same day. The austerity measures included the rationing of
‘essential commodities’ and most states owed salary arrears.
Corruption
was said to be pervasive, and as Sani Abacha said in that famous coup
speech, ‘unemployment has reached unacceptable proportions and our
hospitals have become mere consulting clinics’. General Muhammadu
Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon regime made the fight against corruption and
restoration of discipline the cardinal point of their administration
which lasted for 20 months.
I am not sure they had
a credible plan to get the economy out of the doldrums (although it
must be admitted that poverty incidence in Nigeria as of 1985 when they
left office was a just46%--- according to the Federal Office of
Statistics).
We have come full circle. If the
experience under Shagari could be excused as an unexpected shock, what
Nigeria is going through now is a consequence of our deliberate wrong
choices. We have always known that the unprecedented oil boom (in both
price and quantity—despite oil theft) of the last six years is temporary
but the government chose to treat it as a permanent shock. The
parallels with the Shagari regime are troubling. First, at the time of
oil boom, Nigeria again went on a consumption spree such that the
budgets of the last five years can best be described as ‘consumption
budgets’, with new borrowing by the federal government exceeding the
actual expenditure on critical infrastructure.
Second,
not one penny was added to the stock of foreign reserves at a period
Nigeria earned hundreds of billions from oil. For comparisons, President
Obasanjo met about $5 billion in foreign reserves, and the average
monthly oil price for the 72 months he was in office was $38, and yet he
left $43 billion in foreign reserves after paying $12 billion to
write-off Nigeria’s external debt. In the last five years, the average
monthly oil price has been over $100, and the quantity also higher but
our foreign reserves have been declining and exchange rate depreciating.
I
note that when I assumed office as Governor of CBN, the stock of
foreign reserves was $10 billion. The average monthly oil price during
my 60 months in office was $59, but foreign reserve reached the all-time
peak of $62 billion (and despite paying $12 billion for external debt,
and losing over $15 billion during the unprecedented global financial
and economic crisis) I left behind $45 billion. Recall also that our
exchange rate continuously appreciated during this period and was at
N117 to the dollar before the global crisis and we deliberately allowed
it to depreciate in order to preserve our reserves.
My
calculation is that if the economy was better managed, our foreign
reserves should have been between $102 --$118 billion and exchange rate
around N112 before the fall in oil prices. As of now, the reserves
should be around $90 billion and exchange rate no higher than N125 per
dollar.
Third, the rate of public debt
accumulation at a time of unprecedented boom had no parallel in the
world. While the Obasanjo administration bought and enlarged the policy
space for Nigeria, the current government has sold and constricted it.
What
debt relief did for Nigeria was to liberate Nigerian policymakers from
the intrusive conditionalities of the creditors and thereby truly
allowing Nigeria independence in its public policy. How have we used the
independence? Through our own choices, we have yet again tied the
hands of future policymakers. This time, the debt is not necessarily to
foreign creditor institutions/governments which are organized under the
Paris club but largely to private agents which is even more volatile. We
call it domestic debt. But if one carefully unpacks the bond portfolio,
what percentage of it is held by foreign private agents?
And
I understand the Government had removed the speed bumps we kept to slow
the speed of capital flight, and someone is sweating to explain the
gyrations in foreign reserves. I am just smiling! In sum, the
mismanagement of our economy has brought us once more to the brink.
Government officials rely on the artificial construct of debt to GDP
ratio to tell us we can borrow as much as we want.
That
is nonsense, especially for an economy with a mono but highly volatile
source of revenue and forex earnings. The chicken will soon come home to
roost. Today, the combined domestic and external debt of the Federal
Government is in excess of $40 billion. Add to this the fact that
abandoned capital projects littered all over the country amount to over
$50 billion. No word yet on other huge contingent liabilities.
If
oil prices continue to fall, I bet that Nigeria will soon have a heavy
debt burden even with low debt to GDP ratio. Furthermore, given the
current and capital account regime, it is evident that Nigeria does not
have enough foreign reserves to adequately cover for imports plus short
term liabilities. In essence, we are approaching the classic of what
the Shagari government faced, and no wonder the hasty introduction of
‘austerity measures’ again.
Fourth, poverty
incidence and unemployment are also simultaneously at all-time high
levels. According to the NBS, poverty incidence grew to 69% in 2010 and
projected to be 71% in 2011, with unemployment at 24%. This is the
worst record in Nigeria’s history, and the paradox is that this happened
during the unprecedented oil boom.
One theme I
picked up listening to the campaign rallies as well as to some of the
propagandists is the confusion about measuring government “performance”.
Most people seem to confuse ‘inputs’, or ‘processes’ with output.
Earlier this month, I had a dinner with a group of friends (14 of us)
and we were chit-chatting about Nigeria. One of us, an associate of
President Jonathan veered off to repeat a propaganda mantra that
Jonathan had outperformed his predecessors. He also reminded us that
Jonathan re-based the GDP and that Nigeria is now the biggest economy in
Africa; etc. It was fun listening to the response by others. In sum,
the group agreed that the President had ‘outperformed’ his predecessors
except that it is in reverse order.
First, my
friend was educated that re-basing the GDP is no achievement: it is a
routine statistical exercise, and depending on the base year that you
choose, you get a different GDP figure. Re-basing the GDP has nothing
to do with government policy. Besides, as naira-dollar exchange rate
continues to depreciate, the GDP in current dollars will also shrink
considerably soon.
We were reminded of Jonathan’s
agricultural ‘revolution’. But someone cut in and noted that for all the
propaganda, the growth rate of the agricultural sector in the last five
years still remains far below the performance under Obasanjo.
One
of us reminded him that no other president had presided over the
slaughter of about 15,000 people by insurgents in a peacetime; no other
president earned up to 50% of the amount of resources the current
government earned from oil and yet with very little outcomes; no other
president had the rate of borrowing; none had significant forex earnings
and yet did not add one penny to foreign reserves but losing
international reserves at a time of boom; no other president had a
depreciating exchange rate at a time of export boom; at no time in
Nigeria’s history has poverty reached 71% (even under Abacha, it was 67
-70%); and under no other president did unemployment reach 24%. Surely,
these are unprecedented records and he surely ‘outperformed’ his
predecessors! What a satire!
One of those present
took the satire to some level by comparing Jonathan to the
‘performance’ of the former Governor of Anambra, Peter Obi. He noted
that while Obi gloated about ‘savings’, there is no signature project to
remember his regime except that his regime took the first position
among all states in Nigeria in the democratization of poverty---- mass
impoverishment of the people of Anambra. According to the National
Bureau of Statistics, poverty rose under his watch in Anambra from 20%
in 2004 (lowest in Nigeria then) to 68% in 2010 (a 238%
deterioration!). Our friend likened it to a father who had no idea of
what to do with his resources and was celebrating his fat bank account
while his children were dying of kwashiorkor. He pointed out that since
it is the likes of Peter Obi who are the advisers to Jonathan on how to
manage the economy (thereby confusing micromanagement which you do as a
trader with macro governance) it is little wonder that poverty is fast
becoming another name for Nigeria. It was a very hilarious evening.
My
advice to President Jonathan and his handlers is to stop wasting their
time trying to campaign on his job record. Those who have decided to
vote for him will not do so because he has taken Nigeria to the moon.
His record on the economy is a clear ‘F’ grade. As one reviews the
laundry list of micro interventions the government calls its
achievements, one wonders whether such list is all that the government
could deliver with an unprecedented oil boom and an unprecedented public
debt accumulation. I can clearly see why reasonable people are worried.
Everywhere
else in the world, government performance on the economy is measured by
some outcome variables such as: income (GDP growth rate), stability of
prices (inflation and exchange rate), unemployment rate, poverty rate,
etc. On all these scores, this government has performed worse than its
immediate predecessor--- Obasanjo regime. If we appropriately adjust for
oil income and debt, then this government is the worst in our history
on the economy. All statistics are from the National Bureau of
Statistics.
Despite presiding over the biggest oil
boom in our history, it has not added one percentage point to the
growth rate of GDP compared to the Obasanjo regime especially the 2003-
07 period. Obasanjo met GDP growth rate at 2% but averaged 7% within
2003- 07. The current government has been stuck at 6% despite an
unprecedented oil boom. Income (GDP) growth has actually performed
worse, and poverty escalated. This is the only government in our history
where rapidly increasing government expenditure was associated with
increasing poverty.
The director general of NBS
stated in his written press conference address in 2011 that about 112
million Nigerians were living in poverty. Is this the record to defend?
Obama had a tough time in his re-election in 2012 because unemployment
reached 8%. Here, unemployment is at a record 24% and poverty at an
all-time 71% but people are prancing around, gloating about
‘performance’. As I write, the Naira exchange rate to the dollar is $210
at the parallel market. What a historic performance! Please save your
breathe and save us the embarrassment. The President promised Nigeria
nothing in the last election and we did not get value for money. He
should this time around present us with his plan for the future, and
focus on how he would redeem himself in the second term—if he wins!
Sadly
the government’s economic team is very weak, dominated by
self-interested and self-conflicted group of traders and businessmen,
and so-called economic team meetings have been nothing but showbiz time.
The very people government exists to regulate have seized the levers of
government as policymakers and most government institutions have
largely been “privatized” to them.
Mention any
major government department or agency and someone will tell you whom it
has been ‘allocated’ to, and the person subsequently nominates his
minion to occupy the seat. What do you then expect? The economy seems
to be on auto pilot, with confusion as to who is in charge, and
government largely as a constraint.
There are no
big ideas, and it is difficult to see where economic policy is headed
to. My thesis is that the Nigerian economy, if properly managed, should
have been growing at an annual rate of about 12% given the oil boom, and
poverty and unemployment should have fallen dramatically over the last
five years. This is topic for another day.
So far,
the Government’s response to the self-inflicted crisis is, at best,
laughable. They blame external shocks as if we did not expect them and
say nothing about the terrible policy choices they made. The National
Assembly had described the 2015 budget as unrealistic. The fiscal
adjustments proposed in the 2015 budget simply play to the gallery and
just to pander to our emotions.
For a $540 billion
economy, the so-called luxury tax amounts to zero per cent of GDP. If
the current trend continues, private businesses will come under a heavy
crunch soon. Having put economics on its head during the boom time, the
Government now proposes to increase taxes during a prospective downturn
and impose austerity measures. Unbelievable!
Fortuitously,
just as he succeeded Shagari when Nigeria faced similar situations,
Buhari is once more seeking to lead Nigeria. But times have changed, and
Nigeria is largely different. First, this is a democracy and dealing
with corruption must happen within the ambit of the rule of law and due
process.
Getting things done in a democracy
requires complicated bargaining, especially where the legislature,
labour, the media, and civil society have become strong and
entrenched. Second, the size, structure and institutions of the
economy have fundamentally altered. The market economy, especially the
capital market and foreign exchange market, impose binding constraints
and discipline on any regime.
Third, dealing
with most of the other issues--- insecurity, unemployment/poverty,
infrastructure, health, education, etc, require increased, smarter, and
more efficient spending. Increased spending when the economy is on the
reverse gear?
If oil prices remain between 40- 60
dollars over the next two years, the current policy regime guarantees
that foreign reserves will continue the precipitous depletion with the
attendant exchange rate depreciation, as well as a probable
unsustainable escalation in debt accumulation, fiscal retrenchment or
taxing the private sector with vengeance.
The
scenario does not look pretty. The poor choices made by the current
government have mortgaged the future, and the next government would have
little room to manoeuvre and would inevitably undertake drastic but
painful structural adjustments.
Nigerians loathe
the term ‘structural adjustment’. With falling real wages and
depreciating currency, I can see any belated attempt by the government
to deal with the bloated public sector pitching it against a feisty
labour. I worry about regime stability in the coming months, and I do
not envy the next team.
The seeming crisis is not
destiny; it is self-imposed. However, we must see it as an opportunity
to be seized to fundamentally restructure Nigeria’s political economy,
including its fiscal federalism and mineral rights. The current system
guarantees cycles of consumption loop and I cannot see sustainable long
term prosperity without major systemic overhaul. The proposals at the
national conference merely tinker at the margins. In totality, the
outcome of the national conference is to do more of the same, with minor
amendments on the system of sharing and consumption rather than a
fundamental overhaul of the system for productivity and prosperity.
President
Jonathan promises to implement the report of the national conference if
he wins. I commend him for at least offering ‘something’, albeit,
marginal in my view. I have not heard anything from the APC or Buhari
regarding the national conference report or what kind of federalism they
envisage for Nigeria.
In Nigeria’s recent
history, two examples under the military and civilian governments
demonstrate that where the political will exists, Nigeria has the
capacity to overcome severe challenges. The first was under President
Babangida. Not many Nigerians appreciate that given the near bankrupt
state of Nigeria’s finances and requirements for debt resolution under
the Paris Club, the country had little choice but to undertake the
painful structural adjustment programme (SAP).
I
want to state for the record that the foundation for the current market
economy we operate in Nigeria was laid by that regime (liberalization of
markets including market determined exchange rate, private sector-led
economy including licensing of private banks and insurance,
de-regulation, privatization of public enterprises under TCPC, etc).
Just abolishing the import licensing regime was a fundamental policy
revolution. Despite the criticisms, these policy thrusts have remained
the pillars of our deepening market economy, and the economy recovered
from almost negative growth rate to average 5.5% during the regime and
poverty incidence at 42% in 1992.
Under our
democratic experience, President Obasanjo inherited a bankrupt economy
(with the lost decade of the 1990’s GDP growth rate of 2.2% and hence
zero per capita income growth for the decade). His regime consolidated
and deepened the market economy structures (consolidation of the banking
system which is powering the emergence of a new but truly private
sector-led economy and simultaneously led to a new awareness and boom in
the capital market; telecommunications revolution; new pension regime;
debt relief which won for Nigeria policy independence from the World
Bank and Paris Club; deepening of de-regulation and privatization
including the unbundling of NEPA under PHCN for privatization;
agricultural revolution that saw yearly growth rate of over 6% and
remains unsurpassed ever since; sound monetary and fiscal policy and
growing foreign reserves that gave confidence to investors;
establishment of the Africa Finance Corporation which is leading
infrastructure finance in Africa; backward integration policy that saw
the establishment and growth of Dangote cement and others; established
ICPC and EFCC to fight corruption, etc).
The
economy roared to average yearly growth of 7% between 2003 and 2007
(although average monthly oil price under his regime was $38), and
poverty dropped from estimated 70% in1999 to 54% in 2004. Obasanjo was
his own coordinating minister of the economy and chairman of the
economic management team--- which he chaired for 90 minutes every week. I
met with him daily. In other words, he did not outsource economic
management.
We expected that the next government
after Obasanjo would take the economy to the next level. So far, we
have had two great slogans: the 7-point agenda and currently, the
transformation agenda. They remain empty slogans without content or
direction.
Let me suggest that the fundamental
challenge for the next government on the economy can be framed around
the goal of creating twelve million jobs over the next four years to
have a dent on unemployment and poverty. The challenge is to craft a
development agenda to deliver this within the context of broken public
finance, and an economy in which painful structural adjustments will be
inevitable if current trends in oil prices continue. Most other
programmes on corruption, security, power, infrastructure, etc, are
expected to be instruments to achieve this objective.
So
far, neither the APC nor the PDP has a credible programme for
employment and poverty reduction. The APC promises to create 20,000 jobs
per state in the first year, totalling a mere 720,000 jobs. This
sounds like a quota system and for a country where the new entrants into
the labour market per annum exceed two million.
If
it was intended as a joke, APC must please get serious. On the other
hand, President Jonathan targets two million jobs per annum but his
strategy for doing so is a Job Board--- another committee of sort.
Sorry, Mr. President, a Job Board is not a strategy. The principal job
Nigerians hired you to do for them is to create jobs for them too. You
cannot outsource that job, Sir. Creating 3 million jobs per annum under
the unfolding crisis would task our creativity and audacity to the
limits.
I heard one politician argue that once we
fix power, private sector would create jobs. Not necessarily! Well, this
government claims to have added 1,700MW to the national grid and yet
unemployment soars. Ask Greece, Spain, etc with power and infrastructure
and yet with high unemployment. Structural dislocations play a key
role. For example, currently in Nigeria, it is estimated that more than
60% of graduates of our educational system are unemployable.
You
can understand why many of us are amused when the government celebrates
that it has established twelve more glorified secondary schools as
universities. I thought they would have told us how many Nigerian
universities made it in the league of the best 200 universities in the
world. That would have been an achievement. Surely, creating millions
of jobs in this economy would, among other things, require ‘new money’
and extraordinary system of coordination among the three tiers of
government plus the private sector. Unfortunately, from what I read, the
CBN is largely likely to be asleep at this time the country needs the
most revolutionary finance.
This is a topic for
another day. Only the President can lead this effort. Moreover, we are
waiting for the two parties/candidates to spell out HOW they will create
jobs, whether it is the 20,000 jobs per state by APC or 2 million per
annum by President Jonathan. Let us know how you arrived at the
figures. Whichever of the two that is declared winner will have his job
cut out for him, and I expect him to declare a national emergency on job
creation.
Surprisingly, none of the
parties/candidates has any grand vision about African economic
integration, led by Nigeria. There is no programme on how to make the
naira the de facto currency of ECOWAS or the international financial
centre that can attract more than $100 billion per annum. Where is the
strategy for orchestrating the revolutionary finance to power the
economy during this downturn? For President Jonathan, I find it shocking
that the most important initiative of his government to secure the
future of the economy by Nigeria refusing to sign the ruinous Economic
Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European Union is not even being
mentioned.
President Obasanjo saved Nigeria from
the potential ruin of an ECOWAS single currency while to his credit
Jonathan safeguarded our industrial sector/economy by refusing to sign
the EPA. Or does the government not understand the import of that? It
will be interesting to know the APC’s strategy for exploiting strategic
alliances within Africa, China, and the world for Nigeria’s prosperity.
If
Buhari wins, he will ride on the populist wind for “change”. Most
people I have spoken to who have decided to vote for Buhari do not
necessarily know the specifics of what he would offer or how Nigeria
would be different under him. I asked my driver, Usman, whom he would
vote for President. He responded: “If they no rig the election, na
Buhari everybody go vote for”. I asked him why, and his next response
sums it: “The man dey honest. In short, people just want to see another
face for that villa”. But if he wins, the honeymoon will be brief and
the pressure will be immense to magically deliver a ‘new Nigeria’ with
no corruption, no boko haram or insecurity, jobs for everyone, no
poverty, infrastructure and power in abundance, etc.
As a first point, Buhari and his team must realize that they do not yet
have a coherent, credible agenda that is consistent with the
fundamentals of the economy currently. The APC manifesto contains some
good principles and wish-lists, but as a blue print for Nigeria’s
security and prosperity, it is largely hollow. The numbers do not add
up. Thus, his first job is to present a credible development agenda to
Nigerians.
The second key challenge for Buhari and
his team will be to transit and transform from a group of what I
largely refer to as aggrieved people’s congregation to build a true
political party with a soul from the patchwork of political
associations. It is surely easier to oppose than to govern. This should
not worry us much. After all, even the PDP which has been in power for
16 years is still an assembly of people held together by what I refer to
as dining table politics. I am not sure how many members can tell you
what their party stands for or its mission and vision for Nigeria. The
third but more difficult agenda is cobbling together a truly
‘progressive team’ that will begin to pick the pieces.
The
lesson of history is that the best leaders have been the ones who went
beyond their narrow provincial enclaves to recruit talents and mobilize
capacities for national transformation. In Nigeria’s history, the two
presidents who made the most fundamental transformation of the economy,
Babangida and Obasanjo, were exceptional in the quality of the teams
they put together. I therefore pray that Buhari will be magnanimous in
victory – if he wins—to put together a ‘team Nigeria’ for the rescue
mission.
If Jonathan wins, then God must have been
magnanimous to give him a second chance to redeem himself.
Most people I
know who support Jonathan do so either out of self-interest or fear of
the unknown. As a friend summed it: the devil you know is better than
the angel you do not know. One person assured me that we would see a
‘different Jonathan’ if he wins as he has been rattled by the harsh
judgment of history on his presidency so far. I just pray that he is
right. In that case, I would just draw the President’s attention to two
issues:
First, beside the coterie of clowns who
literally make a living with the sing-song of transformation agenda,
President Jonathan must know that it remains an empty slogan. His
greatest challenge is how to save himself from the stranglehold of his
largely provincial palace jesters who tell him he has done better than
God, and seek out ‘enemies’ and friends who can help him write his name
in history. Propaganda won’t do it.
Second,
Jonathan must claw back his powers as President of Nigeria. He largely
outsourced them, and must now roll his sleeves for a new beginning. I
take liberty to tell you this brutal truth: if you are not re-elected,
there is little to remember your regime after the next few years. On
7th January 2004, I made a special presentation to an expanded economic
management team to set agenda for the new year (as chief economic
adviser). The focus of my presentation was for us to identify seven
iroko trees that would be the flagship markers for the administration as
well as how to finance them. I use the same framework to evaluate your
administration. What I say to you, Mr. President, is that your record of
performance so far is like a farmland filled with grasses. Yes, they
are many but there is no tree, let alone any iroko tree, that stands
out. Think about this. The beginning of wisdom for every President in
his second term is to admit that he is racing against time to cement his
legacy. So far, your report card is not looking great. You need a team
of big and bold thinkers, as well as with excellent execution
capacity. So far, it is not working!
Under the
executive presidential system, Nigerians elected you to manage their
economy. You cannot outsource that job. Our constitution envisages a
federal coordination of the economy, and that function is performed by
the National Economic Council (NEC) with Vice-President as chairman.
Indeed, the constitution and other laws of Nigeria envisage the office
of the VP as the coordinator on the economy.
All
major economic institutions of the federal government are, by law,
chaired by the Vice-President including the national planning (see
functions of the national planning commission as coordinator of federal
government economic and development programmes), debt management office,
National Council on Privatization, etc.
As
chairman of National Planning (with Ministers of Finance, Agriculture,
CBN governor, etc as members), the VP oversees the federal planning and
coordination. Then the Constitution mandates the VP as representative of
the federal government to chair the NEC, with only CBN governor and
state governors as members—to coordinate national economy between
federal and states.
No minister is a member of
NEC. Many people do not understand the logic of the design of our
constitution and the role of the VP. Of course, the buck stops on the
desk of Mr. President. Only the President and VP have our mandate to
govern us. Every other person is an adviser/assistant. I bet that you
will only appreciate this article AFTER you leave office. Now that you
are in power, truth will only hurt! Be assured that those of us who are
prepared to die for Nigeria will never spare you or anyone else this
bitter truth.
Nigeria must survive and prosper beyond Buhari or Jonathan!
![Baga Massacre Satellite images show large scale of destruction by Boko Haram [PHOTOS]](http://static.pulse.ng/img/incoming/origs3409604/5065567189-w644-h429/Baga-massacre-4.jpg)
.jpg "Bola Tinubu APC leader says he sacrificed Presidential ambition for Buhari")
![Muhammadu Buhari Presidential candidate’s secondary school releases his WAEC result [PHOTOS]](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEia6YoyUZQDxN2bmxGWBoePYKONOhQNObSqyfnyXo48HYFh8sxkPj9uDHY0AqTLUTqiLgEmaVPAwQRcBjkrIfQaBaxz8exhh3Y2qOkevvRUl_8pHu7aT3yVLVdRGniwyxJJ2EkIQTp2qwo/s1600/Buhari-WAEC-result-2.png "Muhammadu Buhari Presidential candidate’s secondary school releases his WAEC result [PHOTOS]")
![Muhammadu Buhari Presidential candidate’s secondary school releases his WAEC result [PHOTOS]](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUsMQ8avJCrbu3kTSmyNguHq64vC_iGVucaEMRgBrt72T-TCumhIFDH9nuQKElnRHKmqLa_Aj7wO23DPiTr4QfbK3ZyzcWj6Ao-KBnwzveO_KTvKTobXoNmA_hEP-GG8Yq3Rha6S6c_vA/s1600/Buhari-WAEC-result-3.png "Muhammadu Buhari Presidential candidate’s secondary school releases his WAEC result [PHOTOS]")
![Muhammadu Buhari Presidential candidate’s secondary school releases his WAEC result [PHOTOS]](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5e7YTC_4o9stptuiauwxlDDSsvf8a8gb_rSrbtAqdEvxyEr_pLbArIMy7tJjsgHa8QuGlls4ASHWk2xR0fzzVILYhgMLTDOQ9zxI_JK_cjHULwEO-Oa4SzJcREiDqFFOPYKgF7u781W0/s1600/Buhari-WAEC-result.png "Muhammadu Buhari Presidential candidate’s secondary school releases his WAEC result [PHOTOS]")
